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by Matt Granfield

on Dec 15

2010 marketing predictions

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Last year I made some marketing predictions for 2009 and I was about 90% right. I failed to anticipate that house prices and car sales would go through the roof (although I did buy a house and a car, so go figure), and I thought Kim Jong Il would be dead by now, but other than that, 2009 was a predictably strange year for marketing. The social media goldrush took no one by surprise, but just like Ballarat circa 1860, the result has been a lot of people arriving in Twittertown and only a lucky few people finding anything worth taking to the bank. There were some memorable turkeys (iSnack 2.0 and Westpac's banana video for example) but also plenty of genuinely ingenious approaches to marketing in new, social, post GFC-environment (did I just say that?). Domino's iPhone app and of course Sapient Nitro's success at Cannes with Tourism Queensland's Best Job in the World campaign were some of my favourites. If you're wondering what 2010 holds, beyond the death of despots, read on dear reader.

2010 Marketing Prediction #1: People will stop using the term 'social media'.

It's going to take until December, damnit, but I think the recent death of The Photon Group's The Population gamble heralds the end of the goldrush. Social networks will still exist of course. Facebook will be as popular as ever, but PR agencies and marketing managers will start realising that social media was just a crap name for a bunch of websites where people talked to each other and un-tagged embarrasing photos. If all goes well, CEOs might even realise no-one actually cares and stop blogging.

Prediction #2: 2010 will be the year non-profit organisations do amazing things online.

They have the tools. The new breed of up-and-coming marketing geniuses who work in them know how to use them and the barriers are lower than ever. Fundraising online is now a cinch. The internet's social revolution has made spreading the word easier than ever. The charities with the best ideas will win, the ones that fail to move forward will see their dollars eroded by the ones who capture attention. Micro-charities and smaller players will be at a distinct advantage.

Prediction #3: Ad agencies will employ augmented reality experts and use them to extract dollars from trend-conscious, clueless marketing execs and then laugh about it.

Much like they tried to do in 2009 with social media experts, and in 2005 with digital experts really. It'll work though, for a bit.

Prediction #4: Green will be the new black.

Green has been big for ages of course. I'll bet you fifty bucks your email signature has some wanky message about saving the environment. But unless your company is run by Tony Abbott, you're going to be under a more pressure to show the world what you're doing to reduce your carbon footprint than ever before. Governments around the world are now actually serious about it. Climate change is real. Watch companies of all sizes follow suit. It's going to be huge.

Prediction #5: Mobile.

Mobile has been 'the next big thing' for ages, but smart phones were crap until the iPhone 3G came along. Blackberry and Nokia aren't going to sit idly by and watch Apple steal all the fun, so expect some massive campaigns from them promoting the technology and some amazing applications that make use of portability, touch screens and improving network coverage.

Prediction #6: Companies will start exploiting GPS to a much greater extent.

If you know where people are, you can tailor marketing communications to them. Look at what savvy companies are doing with Facebook, Twitter and FourSquare. It's just a glimpse of what is to come. Check out Urban Spoon and a business search in Google Maps and you'll see what I mean. GPS technology is the most important revolution in small business marketing since the Yellow Pages.

Prediction #7: Customer service will continue to be, generally speaking, crap.

It's just not sexy enough and marketers just don't have enough sway over it. No sane marketer is going to voluntarily take 20% of their budget and give it to the customer service department, and few CEOs are smart enough to understand the impact it could have because they don't have to wait on hold or visit the Department of Transport (or Centrelink, or the phone shop when their mobile breaks, or the bank). Telstra reckon they're going to try, but, well, we'll see.

Prediction #8: Above the line will stay above the line.

TV, radio, print, and mass media as we know it will die, eventually. But it'll be a S.L.O.W. boring death. Nothing much will change in 2010. The internet won't throw up anything massive. Social media won't save the day. Experiential will be sexy, expensive, risky, unproven and requisite of massive brass cojones. PR will be underfunded and continued to be thought of as the crisis management/press release department. I wish it wasn't so, but it is the way it is. Ratings, TARPS, distribution, reach and the stuff you can prove with hard numbers from massive global statistics corporations like Nielsen will continue to attract the big dollars. The other exciting new children will be put out in the cold to sleep with the wolves. Shame.

Prediction #9: Rupert Murdoch will try and make people pay for content and fail miserably.

Because he doesn't understand that he doesn't own the news. And that if they have to pay for it on his websites they'll just go somewhere else. And that people can find a trillion and one other more interesting free ways to entertain themselves online than reading his news. And that people will happily pay for content that makes them money, like The Wall Street Journal, but not pictures of boobies. Not even 157 of them.

Prediction #10: Marketers will know more about digital.

Seriously guys, sharpen up. You're paying stupid commissions to underqualified interns to run your AdWords campaigns, you don't know what Google Insights is, you think banner ads are effective because they generate impressions, you still like Flash introductions, you spend about three times as much on your website as you need to because your ad agency is charging you $2,500 for account management nail polish when they're just out-sourcing the thing to their cousin, you believe your media planner when they tell you taste.com.au is huge in the gay elderly male tenpin bowling demographic and you still can't open a .docx document. Wake the fuck up.

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13 Comments

Mike Watkins
  • Wrote on 15 Dec, at 05:06PM
Strong predictions Matt, all of them valid. In regards to #10 how do u think marketing execs are going to be educated on the evolution of new media tools and the role these tools should be playing within their agencies (clients) work - through specifically recruited individuals who will work in house or will they engage an individual on a consulting basis to work with the agency only when and where needed?
matthewgranfield
  • Wrote on 15 Dec, at 06:31PM
Mike, that's a great question - there are approximately one billion blogs about 'digital' in the world, they'd be a great place to start. Also,if you can stand a bit of crass faux chauvinism, check out http://iamtheclient.blogspot.com/
CamC
  • Wrote on 17 Dec, at 03:04PM
Enjoyed reading this article and can't wait for prediction 1 to gain momentum. Working in the recruitment advertising space I still see social media 'experts' rabbiting on about how recruiting through Twitter and Facebook will be the way of the future. Get real.
Filipa
  • Wrote on 18 Dec, at 01:13AM
Great article... However I don't believe that number 1 will happen in 2010, but it will definitely become a realty in a few years..
Regards from Croatia
Media Hunter
  • Wrote on 20 Dec, at 08:06AM
I think that you might get 10/10 right this year Matt. I especially agree with the non-profits prediction. Its a perfect scenario for them.
Anon
  • Wrote on 21 Dec, at 03:33PM
"Prediction #2: 2010 will be the year non-profit organisations do amazing things online."

... hang on, non-profit organisations are doing amazing things online already!
Tony
  • Wrote on 23 Dec, at 09:43AM
Ok most of this fairly obvious and coming from what seems to be a jilted stand point but I absolutely love comment #10. Too true
attractivo-design
  • Wrote on 26 Dec, at 06:31PM
Great predictions!

I particularly love (and agree) with prediction #10. When will marketers realise that agencies charge an astronomical cost for anything and everything online?! Hopefully as you predict Matt, this will happen in 2010.

Another prediction from me is that, as businesses recover and make a come back post-GFC and grow strongly in 2010, outsourcing suppliers will increase: outsourcing to freelance graphic designers, using contractors for project management, leveraging online experts to boost online sales and branding etc etc.
Silver Lining
  • Wrote on 29 Dec, at 07:35PM
What a great read! Thanks, I feel like I am slightly more equipped for what's to come in 2010.

What about a ‘Rupert Murdock Wakes Up And Smells The Coffee Tipping Competition’?
10
  • Wrote on 1 Jan, at 06:50PM
I have my predition checklist for 2010, lets see if we can make them come true. As for digital ownership to be taken by marketers, i think its about time. Marketers need to know more about digital and be the ones who direct the agencies. Lets move past the generic digital metrics and get a bit smarter and lets just keep on push up.

Happy NY one and all
ringo
  • Wrote on 4 Jan, at 10:04AM
You sound tired mate, maybe time to retire.
Boots On Sale
  • Wrote on 9 Jan, at 06:02PM
Ugg boots are especially manufactured keeping in mind more of a casual look,so it definitely matters if you are to carry a casual look or for a party.When it comes to clothes,we do have certain preferences.It feels like on the top of this world when we get to have something which is so smart yet elegant.So,try out once and wear with that outfit.You will feel on the top of this world.
Mike Darnell
  • Wrote on 11 Jan, at 04:45PM
Hi Matt,

I really enjoyed reading your predictions and some of them had me laughing out loud:
"Ad agencies will employ augmented reality experts and use them to extract dollars from trend-conscious, clueless marketing execs and then laugh about it." - genius : )

Seriously though, I think one major development that will turn out to be a big factor in the landscape this year is a massive increase in the adoption of video content by ecommerce sites. One could say that being affiliated with a company in the field makes me biased and one would probably right however my basis for my prediction isn't my own bias but rather the amount of materials and testimonials from leading ecommerce figures that were published about this topic last year.

It's hard, not to mention unprofitable, to ignore the CEO of a top 500 ecommerce site praising the effect the addition of video has had on his bottom line (see: http://blog.treepodia.com/2009/12/why-ignoring-video-is-costing-you-money )

Keep up the great work :)
I'm tweeting this one...

Mike
@treepodia

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