Zero retail growth forecast for rest of year, despite May rise
Retail sales rose 0.5% month on month and 3.5% year on year in May, a modest increase which could be due to the cold snap southern states experienced during the month.
But the upward trend will be short lived as increased pressure on household budgets catches up with consumers, according to executive director of the Australian Retailer’s Association (ARA), Russell Zimmerman, who predicts zero trade growth for the rest of the year.
Whether perceived or real, the impact of the carbon tax is expected to impact on shopper behaviour. “Families have recently been hit hard with more financial pressure as a result of the carbon tax, which the ARA does not believe has been adequately compensated for,” Zimmerman says.
Discretionary spend categories of household goods retailing, up 0.8% month on month and 0.4% year on year, department stores, up 1% month on month and 0.9% year on year, and clothing, footwear and personal accessories, up 0.5% month on month and 1.7% year on year, experienced sales increases across the board – a rare occurrence for 2012.
“Cool May weather in the southern states is a reason for the spike in trade figures we have seen,” Zimmerman explains. “Categories which rely on consumer discretionary spend such as department stores, clothing and footwear and household goods have enjoyed a modest boost for the first time in quite a few months – both month on month and year on year.”
Food retailing which had been performing strongly stalled, with a 0.1% month on month decrease, but is still up 3.7% year on year. Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services continued to perform well with a 1.4% month on month increase and 8.2% year on year gain.
New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland all clocked month and month and year on year growth for May, while Western Australia performed the strongest up 1.1% and 10%. South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT recorded mixed results.